India faces fresh trade uncertainty after US President Donald Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on countries doing business with Iran. This decision adds pressure on India, which already faces 50 percent tariffs due to Russian oil imports. Since India remains one of Iran’s key trading partners, the move has raised serious concerns across policy and business circles.
India-Iran Trade Under Spotlight
According to data from the Indian Embassy in Tehran, bilateral trade between India and Iran stood at around $1.68 billion in the 2024–25 financial year. India exported goods worth $1.24 billion, while imports from Iran touched $0.44 billion. In rupee terms, the trade value exceeds ₹15,000 crore.
India mainly exports rice, tea, sugar, pharmaceuticals, and organic chemicals to Iran. Among these, organic chemicals lead with exports valued at over $512 million. Meanwhile, India imports petroleum products, plastics, fruits, pistachios, and other dry fruits. Pistachio and nut imports alone crossed $311 million during the same period.
Strategic Concerns Beyond Trade
However, the impact goes beyond numbers. Iran plays a vital role in India’s regional connectivity plans, especially through the Chabahar Port project. This port helps India access Central Asia while bypassing Pakistan. Earlier, the US had granted limited exemptions to Chabahar despite sanctions. Now, Trump’s tariff announcement has created uncertainty over the project’s future.
Will Tariffs Rise to 75 Percent?
India already faces 50 percent US tariffs linked to Russian oil purchases. If Iran-related tariffs also apply, duties on Indian goods could rise to 75 percent. Such a move may hurt exports, manufacturing, and investor confidence. Meanwhile, India and the US continue talks on a broader trade deal, but the latest announcement has complicated negotiations.
Supreme Court Verdict Adds Uncertainty
Adding to the tension, the US Supreme Court is set to rule on the legal validity of Trump’s tariff policies. Trump warned that an adverse verdict could force the US to refund billions and slow investments. Until clarity emerges, India’s trade outlook remains uncertain under the evolving tariff regime.
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